Evidence Standard
aiclavis research separates direct evidence from calculation, interpretation and uncertainty. A conclusion should never sound more certain than the evidence supporting it. Every material finding is therefore classified as:
These labels are not confidence scores. They describe the relationship between a statement and the evidence behind it.
An observation is something the available source explicitly establishes. Examples include:
An observation may still be incomplete or later corrected. Its classification means only that the statement itself is directly supported by the cited evidence.
A derived finding is not directly stated by a source. It is produced through an explicit calculation or transformation of observed data. Examples include:
A derived statement must be reproducible from its stated inputs.
An inference is an explanation, interpretation or structural conclusion that fits the observed and derived evidence. Examples include:
Inference is where much of the analytical value is created. It is also where analytical overreach most easily occurs.
Unknown is not a failure of the research. It is a valid research outcome. A question remains unknown when:
The evidence ceiling
A material finding inherits the limitations of its weakest necessary assumption. If an argument depends on an inference, the final conclusion cannot be presented as directly observed. If a calculation depends on uncertain inputs, the uncertainty remains part of the result.
The analytical chain should remain visible:
source → observation → derivation → inference → conclusion
At each step, certainty may stay the same or decrease. It should never increase without new evidence.
Hypothesis discipline
aiclavis research is not designed to confirm an initial concern. A hypothesis may be:
A negative result remains a result. If the available evidence does not support the suspected gap, the correct outcome is to say so. The objective is to resolve the question — not to preserve the original narrative.
Falsification
Where possible, aiclavis identifies what evidence would weaken or overturn a working hypothesis. A research conclusion is stronger when we can state not only why it may be true, but also:
What would make us change our mind?
This may include:
If no imaginable evidence could change a conclusion, the conclusion is not being treated as a research hypothesis.
Contradictory evidence
When credible sources conflict, aiclavis does not simply select the version that best supports the working argument. The contradiction is investigated. Possible outcomes include:
If the conflict remains unresolved, the relevant conclusion may remain UNKNOWN.
Source hierarchy
aiclavis generally prefers the most direct and authoritative source available for the claim being made. Depending on the question, this may include:
A secondary source may identify a useful lead. It should not replace a stronger primary source when one is available.
Time matters
Every research object should define a data cutoff. A conclusion describes what the evidence supports up to that point. Later events may:
A later outcome does not retroactively change what was knowable at the original cutoff.
Public evidence and internal evidence
Public research is conducted only from information available outside the organisation unless explicitly stated otherwise. Client work may introduce:
New evidence may change earlier conclusions. When it does, the conclusion should change with it. The purpose of the method is not consistency with our previous view. It is consistency with the strongest available evidence.
Materiality
aiclavis distinguishes between anomalies that are merely interesting and those that could materially affect a decision. A finding becomes strategically relevant when it may change:
Research should reduce decision uncertainty, not simply increase the number of facts.
Revision
Material factual corrections or new evidence may require a research object to be updated. Where appropriate, revisions should document:
Silent correction of material findings should be avoided.
Right of reply
aiclavis welcomes:
A company response does not automatically override an independently supported conclusion. It becomes additional evidence and is assessed under the same standard. Material corrections are incorporated and documented.
What this standard does not claim
The Evidence Standard does not eliminate uncertainty. It does not guarantee that every inference will later prove correct. It does not turn incomplete public information into internal knowledge.
Its purpose is narrower:
to make the boundary between what is known, calculated, inferred and still unknown explicit.
That boundary is part of the research result.
The operating principle
We do not need the original hypothesis to be true. We do not need every question to resolve cleanly. We do need the conclusion to remain inside the limits of the evidence.
OBSERVED · DERIVED · INFERRED · UNKNOWN