Founder & Research Lead
I am an independent researcher working on consequential decisions where the evidence is fragmented, competing explanations remain plausible, and the cost of acting on the wrong assumption can be material.
I founded aiclavis to bring that research discipline into real decision environments. The work begins with a simple constraint:
a conclusion should never be stronger than the evidence supporting it.
What I work on
My research focuses on reconstructing systems that are only partially visible from the available evidence. In corporate environments, that may mean understanding:
The objective is not to produce a more persuasive narrative. It is to determine which narrative survives contact with the evidence.
Research approach
aiclavis separates material claims into four evidence classes:
Directly supported by the available evidence.
Calculated or logically reconstructed from observed evidence.
Supported by the evidence, but not directly established by it.
Not currently resolvable from the available evidence.
This distinction is central to how I work. So is falsification. A working hypothesis is allowed to weaken, change or disappear entirely when the evidence does not support it.
The research does not need the original concern to be true.
Founder-led research
aiclavis engagements are currently founder-led. I remain directly involved in:
Technology may support the research process. It does not determine what the evidence means or where the boundary of a defensible conclusion lies. Responsibility for that boundary remains human.
Why aiclavis exists
Many organisations already have substantial reporting, analytics and domain expertise. The difficult problem is not always a lack of information. Sometimes the problem is that the information answers different questions, sits at different levels of the organisation, or supports several plausible explanations at once.
aiclavis was created for that boundary. Not to replace internal expertise. To independently test the question that internal evidence needs to resolve.
Selected research
An outside-in investigation of materially different economic states across two operating regions — and whether the visible evidence supports a deeper coordination or opportunity-cost gap.
Read the research →An investigation into why the headline value of a major industrial project may not describe the actual decision being made.
Read the research →The purpose of research is not to defend the first explanation. It is to find the strongest explanation the evidence can actually sustain.